Climate Change and the Rising Risk of Epidemic Virus Transmission
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61173/dhh76v64Keywords:
Climate change, Epidemic viruses, Global health, Vec-tor-borne diseases, Infectious disease sur-veillanceAbstract
Climate change has increasingly altered global ecological systems, influencing the dynamics of infectious diseases. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and the expansion of suitable habitats for vectors create favorable conditions for viral transmission. This review examines the upward trend of epidemic viral spread in the context of climate change, with a focus on vector-borne and respiratory viruses. Drawing on recent epidemiological data and climate models, the study analyzes the correlation between environmental shifts and viral outbreaks.Our findings indicate that warming temperatures accelerate the geographic expansion of arboviruses such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, while altered rainfall patterns foster mosquito breeding cycles. Moreover, extreme weather events disrupt healthcare infrastructure and increase population displacement, facilitating respiratory virus transmission such as influenza and coronaviruses. The convergence of climate-driven ecological changes and global mobility amplifies the risk of cross-border viral epidemics. These findings underscore an urgent imperative: efforts to address climate change cannot be separated from strategies for infectious disease preparedness. Surveillance systems must be reinforced and designed to detect early signals of climate-sensitive outbreaks, while stronger intersectoral collaboration can bridge gaps between environmental science, epidemiology, and health policy. Integrating climate-informed frameworks into public health decision-making offers a pathway to reduce the growing burden of viral diseases shaped by environmental change.
References
[1] Ali, A., Shaikh, A., Sethi, I., & Surani, S. (2024). Climate change and the emergence and exacerbation of infectious diseases: A review. World Journal of Virology, 13(4). https://doi. org/10.5501/wjv.v13.i4.96476
[2] Romanello, M., Di Napoli, C., Green, C., Kennard, H., Lampard, P., Scamman, D., Walawender, M., Ali, Z., Ameli, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Beggs, P. J., Belesova, K., Ford, L. B., Bowen, K., Cai, W., Callaghan, M., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Chambers, J., Cross, T. J., . . . Costello, A. (2023). The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms. The Lancet, 402(10419), 2346–2394. https:// doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01859-7
[3] Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. (n.d.-b). IPCC. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
[4] Coates, S. J., & Norton, S. A. (2020). The effects of climate change on infectious diseases with cutaneous manifestations. International Journal of Women’s Dermatology, 7(1), 8–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijwd.2020.07.005
[5] Van De Vuurst, P., & Escobar, L. E. (2023). Climate change and infectious disease: a review of evidence and research trends. Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/ s40249-023-01102-2
[6] Cann, K. F., Thomas, D. R., Salmon, R. L., Wyn-Jones, A. P., & Kay, D. (2012). Extreme water-related weather events and waterborne disease. Epidemiology and Infection, 141(4), 671– 686. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268812001653
[7] Carlson, C.J., Albery, G.F., Merow, C., Trisos, C.H., Zipfel, C.M., Eskew, E.A., Olival, K.J., Ross, N. and Bansal, S., 2022. Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk. Nature, 607(7919), pp.555–562. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586- 022-04788-w
[8] Gilbert, M., Xiao, X., Pfeiffer, D.U., Epprecht, M., Boles, S., Czarnecki, C., Chaitaweesub, P., Kalpravidh, W., Minh, P.Q., Otte, M.J., Martin, V. and Slingenbergh, J., 2017. Ecohealth and influenza: Avian influenza at the interface of humans, animals and the environment. EcoHealth, 14(1), pp.88–93. https://doi. org/10.1007/s10393-016-1190-x
[9] Keesing, F., Belden, L.K., Daszak, P., Dobson, A., Harvell, C.D., Holt, R.D., Hudson, P., Jolles, A., Jones, K.E., Mitchell, C.E., Myers, S.S., Bogich, T. and Ostfeld, R.S., 2010. Impacts of biodiversity on the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. Nature, 468(7324), pp.647–652. https://doi. org/10.1038/nature09575
[10] Mordecai, E.A., Cohen, J.M., Evans, M.V., Gudapati, P., Johnson, L.R., Lippi, C.A., Miazgowicz, K., Murdock, C.C., Rohr, J.R., Ryan, S.J., Savage, V., Shocket, M.S., Stewart Ibarra, A.M., Thomas, M.B. and Weikel, D.P., 2017. Temperature influences vector competence for arboviruses. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 11(4), p.e0005568. https://doi.org/10.1371/ journal.pntd.0005568
[11] Paz, S., 2019. Climate change impacts on West Nile virus transmission in a global context. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 374(1786), p.20180246. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0246
[12] Plowright, R.K., Foley, P., Field, H.E., Dobson, A.P., Foley, J.E., Eby, P. and Daszak, P., 2015. Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 282(1798), p.20142124. https://doi. org/10.1098/rspb.2014.2124
[13] Ryan, S.J., Carlson, C.J., Mordecai, E.A. and Johnson, L.R., 2019. Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 13(3), p.e0007213. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pntd.0007213
[14] Gilbert, M., Xiao, X., Pfeiffer, D.U., Epprecht, M., Boles, S., Czarnecki, C., Chaitaweesub, P., Kalpravidh, W., Minh, P.Q., Otte, M.J. and Martin, V., 2008. Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(12), pp.4769–4774. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0710581105
[15] Lowen, A.C., Mubareka, S., Steel, J. and Palese, P., 2007. Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity Dean&Francis Yuchen Yi and temperature. PLoS Pathogens, 3(10), p.e151. https://doi. org/10.1371/journal.ppat.0030151
[16] Lowen, A.C., Steel, J., Mubareka, S. and Palese, P., 2008. High temperature (30 °C) blocks aerosol but not contact transmission of influenza virus. Journal of Virology, 82(11), pp.5650–5652. https://doi.org/10.1128/JVI.00325-08
[17] Reperant, L.A., Kuiken, T. and Osterhaus, A.D., 2016. Adaptive pathways of zoonotic influenza viruses: from exposure to establishment in humans. Vaccine, 34(26), pp.2872–2877. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.03.007
[18] Tamerius, J.D., Shaman, J., Alonso, W.J., Bloom-Feshbach, K., Uejio, C.K., Comrie, A. and Viboud, C., 2013. Environmental predictors of seasonal influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates. PLoS Pathogens, 9(3), p.e1003194. https://doi. org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1003194
[19] Bunge, E.M., Hoet, B., Chen, L., Lienert, F., Weidenthaler, H., Baer, L.R. and Steffen, R., 2022. The changing epidemiology of human monkeypox—A potential threat? A systematic review. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 16(2), p.e0010141. https:// doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141
[20] Sklenovská, N. and Van Ranst, M., 2018. Emergence of monkeypox as the most important orthopoxvirus infection in humans. Frontiers in Public Health, 6, p.241. https://doi. org/10.3389/fpubh.2018.00241
[21] Vanderburg, S., Rubinson, L., Hamblion, E., Muller, M.P., Ntoumi, F., Gould, S. and Van Kerkhove, M.D., 2022. Applying lessons from COVID-19 to monkeypox: A call for proactive and timely response. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 22(7), pp.930– 931. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00359-0
[22] Campbell, K.M., Lin, C.D., Iamsirithaworn, S. and Scott, T.W., 2015. The complex relationship between weather and dengue virus transmission in Thailand. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 92(5), pp.1066–1077. https:// doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.14-0321
[23] Liu-Helmersson, J., Stenlund, H., Wilder-Smith, A. and Rocklöv, J., 2019. Vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti: Effects of temperature and implications for global dengue epidemic potential. PLoS ONE, 14(3), p.e0210120. https://doi. org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210120
[24] Mordecai, E.A., Cohen, J.M., Evans, M.V., Gudapati, P., Johnson, L.R., Lippi, C.A., Miazgowicz, K., Murdock, C.C., Rohr, J.R., Ryan, S.J. and Savage, V., 2017. Temperature influences vector competence for arboviruses. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 11(4), p.e0005568. https://doi.org/10.1371/ journal.pntd.0005568
[25] Ryan, S.J., Carlson, C.J., Mordecai, E.A. and Johnson, L.R., 2019. Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 13(3), p.e0007213. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pntd.0007213
[26] Ahlawat, A., Wiedensohler, A. and Mishra, S.K., 2020. An overview on the role of relative humidity in airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Aerosol and Air Quality Research, 20(9), pp.1856–1861. https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2020.06.0302
[27] Moriyama, M., Hugentobler, W.J. and Iwasaki, A., 2020. Seasonality of respiratory viral infections. Annual Review of Virology, 7, pp.83–101. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurevvirology-012420-022445
[28] Watts, N., Amann, M., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Berry, H., Bouley, T., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W. and Campbell-Lendrum, D., 2021. The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future. The Lancet, 398(10311), pp.1619–1662. https:// doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01787-6
[29] SHI Biao, LI Yu Xia, YU Xhua, YAN Wang. Short-term load forecasting based on modified particle swarm optimizer and fuzzy neural network model. Systems Engineering-Theory and Practice, 2010, 30(1): 158-160.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 by the authors.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
